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Experts Offer Predictions Regarding Internet as of 2020

Google not a threat to intelligence, new apps will surprise, most agree

Lynn Blumenstein -- Library Journal, 2/23/2010


One-third dissent over Internet as positive learning development
Same percentage concerned over control access to information
41 percent think anonymity will be threatened
The Pew Internet Project has released the latest installment (the fourth since 2005) of its ongoing study of the Internet, as interpreted by prominent, multidiscipinary experts. The Future of the Internet IV offers survey results from nearly 900 "Internet stakeholders," a collection of business and technology leaders, consultants, and writers.

The experts offered opinions on five key education, technology, and privacy trends, as of 2020.

How will Google affect our intelligence?

Some 76 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that "Google won’t make us stupid."

"Google allows us to be more creative in approaching problems and more integrative in our thinking. We spend less time trying to recall and more time generating solutions," said Paul Jones, ibiblio, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.

"The question is flawed: Google will make intelligence different," according to Alex Halavais, vice president, Association of Internet Researchers. "Holding in your head information that is easily discoverable on Google will no longer be a mark of intelligence.... Being able to quickly and effectively discover information and solve problems...will be the metric we use."

Does the Internet’s intrusion on education efforts augment or disturb learning processes?

Two thirds, or 65 percent agreed with the statement, "the Internet has enhanced and improved reading, writing and the rendering of knowledge." According to Stephen Downes, National Research Council, Canada, by 2020 "a multi-literate society has developed, one that can communicate with ease through a variety of media, including art and photography, animation, video, games and simulations, as well as text and code."

But a significant minority is concerned over the changes already apparent. "We will be less patient and less able to concentrate on long-form texts. This will result in a resurgence of short-form texts and story-telling, in ‘Haiku-culture’ replacing ‘book-culture," responded Andreas Kluth, writer, Economist magazine.

Can we predict what innovations are in the pipeline through 2020 or will we be surprised?

A resounding majority, 80 percent, agree that new applications will "come out of the blue," surprising and capturing the interest of Internet users. "The correct answer is a combination of the two," said David Clark, senior research scientist, Next-Generation Internet, MIT. The "device space" is foreseeable but the application space is harder to predict.

Will the "end-to-end" or the direct nature of information access continue or will there be more controlled access?

Only 61 percent thought the Internet will remain "as its founders envisioned" with a minimum of restrictions. One-third of the respondents agreed that "the Internet will mostly become a technology where intermediary institutions that control the architecture and …content will be successful in gaining the right to manage information and the method by which people access it."

Will Internet users be able to remain anonymous?

Some 55 percent agreed that Internet users will still be able to communicate anonymously, while 41 percent agreed that by 2020 "anonymous online activity is sharply curtailed."